Road to Dortmund | BVB Fan Blog

We’re nearing the end of the month of March, which means we’re closing on the first two months since the appointment of Niko Kovac as head coach of Borussia Dortmund. Two months, while not an extensive period, is sufficient timeframe to get a solid first impression – especially in context of Kovac getting himself into a job where he is relied to turn a disappointing season around and BVB playing two games per week between Bundesliga and Champions League.

In 6 Bundesliga games under Kovac team’s xG : xGA is 14.8 : 5.5, which is rather dramatic shift vs Sahin era (per game average 2.5 : 0.9 under Kovac vs 1.4 : 1.3 under Sahin). This is +70% improvement in xG and -30% reduction in xGA and the fact that Kovac managed to change this dynamic from day one is pretty impressive. Since the first game against Stuttgart, the Dortmund team had solidified defense and managed to play a more cohesive, controlled kind of game. Under Kovac, BVB became a team that suddenly looks like it has a game plan and is significantly better organized. This has been the quick win of the Kovac era so far.

What did not work against Stuttgart in Kovac’s first game was turning the positive shift in play, both from the perspective of analytics and eye test, into improvement in actual result. And this is where, cautious there is still a good set of games to play this season, Stuttgart game retrospectively seems almost prophetic. I have mentioned the strong improvement in xG : xGA – this translates into BVB ranging from competitive to flat out dominating in most games. In spite of this, they have only managed to win 2 Bundesliga games, and have lost 4. While the discrepancy between analytics and actual results is massive, the brief explanation is super simple: the team is creating chances that it is not converting into goals, while conceding goals from isolated, but still too frequent, individual mistakes. What we’re seeing under Kovac is that while the systems he’s implementing are working, the individual performances, or the lack thereof, is pulling the team down. If you watch the games, there is a massive difference, if you just watch game scores, the team continues to slump.

So let’s have a quick look at the positives and negatives here:

The Positives

While the results in Bundesliga under Kovac are terrible 2-0-4, the play has improved significantly. This brings a clearer picture into who should and shouldn’t be part of future plans for the club. And everything that’s been happening around the club is pointing in a direction of significant changes coming in the summer. Both on management and at squad building level.

Midfield has been the most critical factor in BVB’s terrible season so far. Losing possession, not winning it back, not providing support to either forwards or defenders. Kovac has managed to fix this to a large degree as we’ve seen from rather solid performances from Gross and Sabitzer over the last two months.

Beier playing a larger role – giving him more starts allows for stability and rhythm which is very obvious on his performances. He’s still not finishing like we have seen he’s capable of, perhaps costing the team a game against Leipzig where he had a few AAA chances, but the way he’s been playing when given regular time is giving this kid a great look as potentially key player for the club going forward.

The negatives

Individual performances and lack of anybody really stepping up at crucial moments of the season in what continues to haunt this team. Brandt, Gittens, Sule, Kobel, Anton, Sabitzer… I could go on. The lack of #10 with both Brandt’s and Reyna’s continuing MIA performances is a real problem. If the team misses European qualification for next year, this will be one of key drivers this season will be remembered for. If the team had an impactful #10, I’m convinced they do come back from 0-1 to win the game against Augsburg – which is a game that could serve as template: BVB has come back from being down 1:0 exactly twice this year, which is a terrible stat as it shows that all you need to beat BVB this year is to score first and then park the bus. Job done. Congratulations on 3 points.

Inconsistency. Players that have been bright spots have either struggled with injuries or have been wildly inconsistent. Gross is a good example. Adeyemi was great at the start of season, then completely ineffective for prolonged periods until he found his footing again now under Kovac. Beier as mentioned earlier. Nmecha has been great when he played but then out with injury for the majority of the current campaign. Guirassy, in spite of having his own shortcomings, has been the only starter that has consistently delivered on his value proposition. One player in a squad of 20+.

Overall

Kovac has improved underlying numbers of the team – the xG is up while the xG against is down, and the team’s play feels more consistent. Defense is solidified which allows the team to play with more confidence. And perhaps most importantly, midfield is actually engaged – midfielders being a nonfactor was the most glaring problem with this time during the short lived Sahin era. Kovac is known as defense-first coach so it’s not surprising that this is the first problem he addressed. The fact he managed to do so right from the start is quite impressive. 

Now what remains to be seen is what this means for the next set of games and in the long run. Over next two weeks BVB (currently #11 in the table) plays Mainz (#3), Freiburg (#6) and Bayern (#1) in the Bundesliga, and needs at least two wins here to remain competitive for European qualification. In between they have a Champions League quarter finals against Barcelona – so without question the most difficult run of games of this season. This is the final chance for the team to step up and bounce back in a season full of disappointments.